Donald Trump
Trump’s worldorder: election
win brings fears ofa
combustible US foreign DolicV
군사 개입은 최대한 안할것
Vance, for instance has argued: “From Iraq to
Afghanistan, from the financial crisis to the
Great Recession, from open borders
stagnant
wages_
the people who govern this country have
failed and failed again?
He went on:
Furthermore, they failed because
they bought into
theory of the world that
forgot to put the interests of the US front and
centre. No longer. As Trump famously declared
back
In
2016 when he first won the White House
‘Americanism, not globalism
will now be our
credo.
우리논 이라크부터 아프간까지 계속 실패햇고
이상 세계의 이익이 아난 미국
익을 최우선으로
이라 천명.
무기 지원은 하되 미군이 직접 개입하는건 감소함걸로 보임
유렵내
주스
Peace through strength?
How Trump intervenes in the world now is a
matter
of debate within his circle of foreign
policy
specialists. Jeremy Shapiro from the
European Council on Foreign Relations has put
them into three tribes
the restrainers, who
want the US to do as little as
possible, the
prioritisers, Who argue that distractions such as
Ukraine must be removed to focus on the Great
Power competition with China, and the
primacists, who insist the US must remain the
hegemonic power throughout the globe, and
ceding any status to the
powers
Brics
would be fatal.
우크라이나 손절과 유렵쪽은 자기들이 알아서 하고 거기서 미국 전력 빼서 미국
최대의 적수인 중국 근방인 동아시아로 배치.
동망은 이제부
비지니스
Elbridge Colby says Trump will take a pragmatic approach
alliances
Photoaraph: Dominic Gwinn/Middle East
naqeslAFPIGetty
This assertion of peace through strength comes
with
price tag. She says
would require a
“build-uP of US military force not seen since the
last decade ofthe cold war”. That necessitates
prioritising, the key theme ofthe 2018 Trump
national security strategy in which Elbridge
Colby had
key role.
Colby insists Trump will not oppose alliances
per se but `
them as less values-driven and
more
private business partnership
in which
both sides aim to have their commercial self-
interest satisfied
Ifthose partnerships become
inequitable; or the US feels it is being fleeced,
then they can be broken.
콜비의 주장 : 동망은 가치로 가능게 아니라 서로 이해관계에 의거한 비지니스적
관계.
서로간 이해관계가 맞아떨어질때 동망은 성립하는것으_
미국의 동망들이 미국
과 불평등한 관계라 생각하거나 또는 미국이 동망국들에게 등처먹현다 생각하면
동망은 언제든 깨질수 있음
우크라이나는 유렵이 지원해라
By contrast,
lead candidate to be Trump s
national security adviser; Richard O Brien
writing in Foreign Affairs, said he supported
Ukraine so
as Europe
more
something
itfeels it is already doing.
He wrote: cTrump’ s approach would be to
continue to provide lethal aid to Ukraine,
financed by European countries, While keeping
the door open to diplomacy with Russia
and
keeping Moscow off balance with
degree of
unpredictability. He would also push Nato
To
rotate ground and air forces to Poland to
augment its capabilities closer to Russia s border
and to make unmistakably clear that the alliance
will defend all its territory from foreign
aggression.
cIf Europe wants to show thatit is serious about
defending Ukraine, it should admit the country
to the European Union immediately; waiving the
uSua
bureaucratic accession
protocol?
우크라이나름 그렇게 지키고 싶다면 미국에제
달라 하지말고 유렵 돈으로
국 무기 사서 지원하고 유렵연합에 우크라이나 가입시켜라.
나토는 군사님
더더욱 많이 씨라
Europe
already pointing out that, as of June,
23 of Nato’s 32 members had met its target of
spending 2% of GDP on defence, twice as many
as four years ago. But Colby; who believes the US
should focus its energy on China, says that
Europe
however indebted, will have
spend
still more In this narrow regard, he and
Emmanuel Macron think alike
Part of the problem is that the EU has
demonstrated its
unwillingness
conduct a
common foreign policy, as evidenced by its year-
long division over Palestine, divisions born of
national histories
유렵따위에 신경쓸 시간 없으니 나토 국가들은 국방비틀 gdp 2% 보다 더 많이
싸야되다 사실상 유렵 복지에
줄여 국방비 쓰란 얘기.
이스라일 무지성 지원
Those divisions will allow Trump,
partnership
with Benjamin Netanyahu, to ignore the
resolutions ofthe UN, which both men hold in
contemDt
Netanyahu Will have
freer hand to
obliterate Hamas and form an Israeli-led
administration in Gaza
The sporadic US pressure on Israel to back
tWO
state solution, encouraged by Saudi Arabia, will
dissipate. Trump told Time magazine:
There
Was
time when
thought twO states could
work=
유엔 총회 무시하고
[스라엘어
전폭적인 미국 뒷배
미군
rising
view
long
paid

8. 이란 초강경 제재
Instead, O’Brien says, Iran and those who trade
with Iran will once again feel the heat of
maximum sanctions pressure, the policy
devised by Stephen Mull, now appointed to be
the head of Trump transition at the State
Department. Iran in turn will debate in its more
isolated circumstances whether the fatwa on
possessing nuclear weapons should be lifted.
But there will be a tension. Some in the
administration will back the Greater Israel
project. Others will want Saudi to normalise
relations with Israelin a further extension ofthe
Abraham accords, Trump’ s signature first-term
foreign policy achievement.
이란과 무역하는 제 3국도 초강력 경제제재하켓다고 한 만큼 이런의 경제적 고립
은 더 가시화
9.
중국 중국 중국
Focus on China
All ofthis is for a single purpose
tofocus laser-
like on the
coming challenge of China, and what
Colby has referenced as “the cosmic role of the
dice” , the decision facing China on whether to
invade Taiwan. The sense that China is the pre-
eminent strategic threat shines through the
thinking of the entire Trump policy circle, many
of whom advocate the complete decoupling of
the two economies_
Beijing may have drawn comfort from Trump s
recent proclamation that “Taiwan doesn’t give
us
anything”
even though the US, which he
likened to the mafia, gave them protection. But
Beijing knows that is not a green light.
그리고 이 유렵과 중동에서의 미군 최소화 및 동망국들이 1인분하게끔 국방비
이고 군대규모 늘리라는것의 최종목적은 중국 대응.
Cumulative private sectorinvestmentin
Al, 2013-2023
2013-2023
US.
$335 .26
China
103
76
UK
22
3b
Israel
12
8b
Canada
10
6b
Germany
10
46
India
9b
France
8
36
South Korea
7 . 3b
Singapore
6 . 3b
Data: S8P Global; Chart: Axios Visuals
2013 – 2023년 10년간 주요국들 인공지능 투자액 : 사실상 미중 투톱 체제 ]
중국과 패권경쟁에서 이기느나 마느나가 바로 미국의 국운올 결정짓고 더 나아가
미국이 Al 시대가 개막하기 전 역사 최후의 패권국으로 남느나 아니면 쇠락하느
나름 판가름 벌거라고 보고 있기 때문
TREND (1980-2029)
Billions of US. dollars
40 thousand
30 thousand
20 thousand
10 thousand
2024
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
SELECTION (2024)
United States
29.17 thousand
China People’s Republi 18.27 thousand
Germany
4.71 thousand
Japan
4
07 thousand
United Kingdom
3.59 thousand
France
3.17 thousand
Russian Federation
2.18 thousand
Korea Republic of
1.87 thousand
[미국 중국 독일, 일본, 영국 프랑스 러시야 한국 GDP ]
사실상 중국 이외에는 미국에 전락적 위협이 월 만한 국가는 없다고 보고 있는중